Global growth is slowing sharply in the face of elevated inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report. 

Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development—such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, or escalating geopolitical tensions—could push the global economy into recession. This would mark the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade. 

The global economy is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. The sharp downturn in growth is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies. 

Over the next two years, per-capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to average 2.8%—a full percentage point lower than the 2010-2019 average. In Sub-Saharan Africa—which accounts for about 60% of the world's extreme poor—growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2%, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall. 

"The crisis facing development is intensifying as the global growth outlook deteriorates," said World Bank Group President David Malpass. "Emerging and developing countries are facing a multi-year period of slow growth driven by heavy debt burdens and weak investment as global capital is absorbed by advanced economies faced with extremely high government debt levels and rising interest rates. Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already-devastating reversals in education, health, poverty, and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change." 

Growth in advanced economies is projected to slow from 2.5% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023. Over the past two decades, slowdowns of this scale have foreshadowed a global recession. In the United States, growth is forecast to fall to 0.5% in 2023—1.9 percentage points below previous forecasts and the weakest performance outside of official recessions since 1970. In 2023, euro-area growth is expected at zero percent—a downward revision of 1.9 percentage points. In China, growth is projected at 4.3% in 2023—0.9 percentage point below previous forecasts. 

Excluding China, growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to decelerate from 3.8% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, reflecting significantly weaker external demand compounded by high inflation, currency depreciation, tighter financing conditions, and other domestic headwinds. 

By the end of 2024, GDP levels in emerging and developing economies will be roughly 6% below levels expected before the pandemic. Although global inflation is expected to moderate, it will remain above pre-pandemic levels. 

The report offers the first comprehensive assessment of the medium-term outlook for investment growth in emerging market and developing economies. Over the 2022-2024 period, gross investment in these economies is likely to grow by about 3.5% on average—less than half the rate that prevailed in the previous two decades. The report lays out a menu of options for policy makers to accelerate investment growth. 

"Subdued investment is a serious concern because it is associated with weak productivity and trade and dampens overall economic prospects. Without strong and sustained investment growth, it is simply impossible to make meaningful progress in achieving broader development and climate-related goals," said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank's Prospects Group. 

"National policies to boost investment growth need to be tailored to country circumstances but they always start with establishing sound fiscal and monetary policy frameworks and undertaking comprehensive reforms in the investment climate." 

The report also sheds light on the dilemma of 37 small states—countries with a population of 1.5 million or less. These states suffered a sharper COVID-19 recession and a much weaker rebound than other economies, partly because of prolonged disruptions to tourism.

In 2020, economic output in small states fell by more than 11%— seven times the decline in other emerging and developing economies. The report finds that small states often experience disaster-related losses that average roughly 5% of GDP per year. This creates severe obstacles to economic development. 

Policymakers in small states can improve long-term growth prospects by bolstering resilience to climate change, fostering effective economic diversification, and improving government efficiency. The report calls upon the global community to assist small states by maintaining the flow of official assistance to support climate-change adaptation and help restore debt sustainability.

When the infectious coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hit Uganda, it left the country’s economy in an injurious state that the government, the private sector and the general public are grappling to recover from due to the pandemic devastations, including thousands of lost human life. 

Like many other countries knocked out by the global pandemic has left over 3, 500 dead in Uganda and 6.3m, out of the 512m global cases, dead, the government of Uganda devised recovery plans to resuscitate the economy and bring it back to life.

But in so doing, stakeholders wanted to make sure that the question of environmental preservation and climate change are captured in these government COVID19 recovery interventions. If done, this would help to have a green economy as the country recovered from the pandemic.

In that spirit, Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) commissioned a study on mainstreaming natural capital management into Uganda’s COVID -19 recovery packages. The study intended to, among other things, reveal the extent to which recovery packages worked for or against natural capital and to influence recovery plans to mainstream natural capital in economic decision-making into budgetary, fiscal, monetary and trade policy.

According to ACODE, the study focused on assessing positive measures to integrate natural capital into the recovery including budgetary, fiscal, monetary and trade policies (such as expenditure policies that support afforestation) as against negative budgetary, fiscal, monetary and trade measures which undermine natural capital (such as fiscal and trade incentives for forestry clearance).

 And according to the report compiled from the study titled Mainstreaming Natural Capital Into Uganda’s Covid-19 Recovery Packages, Mr. Aaron Werikhe, a consultant, revealed that the government of Uganda deployed mainly four COVID19 Recovery Packages to intervene.

These were through the third National Development Plan (2020/21-2024/25) which was the overall framework for recovery and the Financial Year 2020/21 COVID Recovery National Budget which was aimed at stimulating the economy to safeguard livelihoods, jobs, businesses and industrial recovery.

The other is the Financial Year National Recovery Budget used to speed up economic recovery & driving inclusive growth and then the $281.7m advanced to Uganda Development Bank Limited to lend out businesses.

These packages targeted economic activities like farming, industrialists, water and environment, energy, natural resources exploitation, land use, forestation. According to Mr. Werikhe explanation, these were geared at having an inclusive growth and sustainable use of natural resources that are a factor of production.

But despite the interventions' limitations like delayed or no monetary releases, confidentiality clauses as the case with UDB, poor accountability and uncertainty of the pandemic end, Dr. Arthur Bainomugisha, the executive director of ACODE, was hopeful and positive that the interventions are headed in the right direction.

Dr. Bainomugisha, in an interview with Earthfinds, said: “From this study which has been presented, there is hope. When you look at the policy framework, the legal framework, and the institutional framework, the government has put in place enabling frameworks. The problem now is implementation; to move from rhetoric to practice. We want to see a government that bites,”

He added: “Some of those interventions like recapitalizing UDB, the emyooga money, and also, they have put aside some money for small enterprises which can create jobs should have a consciousness that this money should conserve the environment.

“If you don’t, then you are going to worsen the situation because we are still dependent on the environment and natural resources. People can use this money to cut down trees, to destroy the wetlands and that will not be good in terms of recovery.

“We are saying that these interventions that government is coming up with, to create jobs, to restart companies that had collapsed, to give them a new lease of life, should have a bearing to invest in nature so that it remains stable and provide opportunities to the current and future generations,”

The report recommends that there is a need to initiate and undertake strategic effective dialogue with high impact national expenditure decision making stakeholders such as Parliament & relevant Government Agencies – on the need to green COVID-19 Recovery Packages.

Also, recommended is the necessity to advocate for environmental fiscal reforms such as tax incentives for local green enterprises, deterrent environmental fines & include environment sustainability commitment among investment license access conditions and the need to generate cutting edge analytical studies that elaborate on the direct nexus between human health, the state of natural capital and achievement of planned development goals.

The other recommendations captured in the report are the need to lobby for adherence to social inclusiveness and equity in the design of COVID-19 recovery packages beyond the narrow focus on economic & financial recovery and the development of an engagement strategy with the government to bilaterally track the enforcement of the polluter pays principle stipulated in the new environment Act.    

When the infectious coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hit Uganda, it left the country’s economy in an injurious state that the government, the private sector and the general public are grappling to recover from due to the pandemic devastations, including thousands of lost human life. 

Like many other countries knocked out by the global pandemic has left over 3, 500 dead in Uganda and 6.3m, out of the 512m global cases, dead, the government of Uganda devised recovery plans to resuscitate the economy and bring it back to life.

But in so doing, stakeholders wanted to make sure that the question of environmental preservation and climate change are captured in these government COVID19 recovery interventions. If done, this would help to have a green economy as the country recovered from the pandemic.

In that spirit, Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) commissioned a study on mainstreaming natural capital management into Uganda’s COVID -19 recovery packages. The study intended to, among other things, reveal the extent to which recovery packages worked for or against natural capital and to influence recovery plans to mainstream natural capital in economic decision-making into budgetary, fiscal, monetary and trade policy.

According to ACODE, the study focused on assessing positive measures to integrate natural capital into the recovery including budgetary, fiscal, monetary and trade policies (such as expenditure policies that support afforestation) as against negative budgetary, fiscal, monetary and trade measures which undermine natural capital (such as fiscal and trade incentives for forestry clearance).

 And according to the report compiled from the study titled Mainstreaming Natural Capital Into Uganda’s Covid-19 Recovery Packages, Mr. Aaron Werikhe, a consultant, revealed that the government of Uganda deployed mainly four COVID19 Recovery Packages to intervene.

These were through the third National Development Plan (2020/21-2024/25) which was the overall framework for recovery and the Financial Year 2020/21 COVID Recovery National Budget which was aimed at stimulating the economy to safeguard livelihoods, jobs, businesses and industrial recovery.

The other is the Financial Year National Recovery Budget used to speed up economic recovery & driving inclusive growth and then the $281.7m advanced to Uganda Development Bank Limited to lend out businesses.

These packages targeted economic activities like farming, industrialists, water and environment, energy, natural resources exploitation, land use, forestation. According to Mr. Werikhe explanation, these were geared at having an inclusive growth and sustainable use of natural resources that are a factor of production.

But despite the interventions' limitations like delayed or no monetary releases, confidentiality clauses as the case with UDB, poor accountability and uncertainty of the pandemic end, Dr. Arthur Bainomugisha, the executive director of ACODE, was hopeful and positive that the interventions are headed in the right direction.

Dr. Bainomugisha, in an interview with Earthfinds, said: “From this study which has been presented, there is hope. When you look at the policy framework, the legal framework, and the institutional framework, the government has put in place enabling frameworks. The problem now is implementation; to move from rhetoric to practice. We want to see a government that bites,”

He added: “Some of those interventions like recapitalizing UDB, the emyooga money, and also, they have put aside some money for small enterprises which can create jobs should have a consciousness that this money should conserve the environment.

“If you don’t, then you are going to worsen the situation because we are still dependent on the environment and natural resources. People can use this money to cut down trees, to destroy the wetlands and that will not be good in terms of recovery.

“We are saying that these interventions that government is coming up with, to create jobs, to restart companies that had collapsed, to give them a new lease of life, should have a bearing to invest in nature so that it remains stable and provide opportunities to the current and future generations,”

The report recommends that there is a need to initiate and undertake strategic effective dialogue with high impact national expenditure decision making stakeholders such as Parliament & relevant Government Agencies – on the need to green COVID-19 Recovery Packages.

Also, recommended is the necessity to advocate for environmental fiscal reforms such as tax incentives for local green enterprises, deterrent environmental fines & include environment sustainability commitment among investment license access conditions and the need to generate cutting edge analytical studies that elaborate on the direct nexus between human health, the state of natural capital and achievement of planned development goals.

The other recommendations captured in the report are the need to lobby for adherence to social inclusiveness and equity in the design of COVID-19 recovery packages beyond the narrow focus on economic & financial recovery and the development of an engagement strategy with the government to bilaterally track the enforcement of the polluter pays principle stipulated in the new environment Act.    

The gentle cool breeze from Lake Victoria welcomes you to Buhere landing site, Bukana Sub County in Namayingo district, eastern Uganda. The breeze further tames the early February afternoon sunshine that had proved to be a menace as our two-wheeler motor navigated through the bumpy but motorable murram feeder roads in rural Namayingo.

While the lake breeze was welcoming, the piercing sounds of men working the machines in the rocky hill that lay above the landing site, the Buhere Mines, was representative of the emerging mining economic activity that is fast replacing fishing and agriculture.

Namayingo like many other rural districts in Uganda is dependent on agriculture, fishing and petty trade. This is fast changing ever since the district became a gold mining hub. But this rapid transformation was put to a halt when COVID19 pandemic, an alien virus disease hit the world in 2019 and in early 2020 brought Uganda to its knees.

No more gold rush

In Namayingo, as President Yoweri Museveni on 18^th March 2020 suspended mass gatherings and announced quarantining of incoming travelers, in what was the beginning of the many stringent measures to curb the spread of the new virus, residents of little Buhere didn’t know that their burgeoning mining trade was bound to stall for more than two years.

“It was a difficult time. Miners, those who had come from far towns, left. The prices fell. There was no one who was buying gold because transport had been cut off. To date, we are yet to recover,” Mr. George Mina, the vice chairperson of Buhere village, told Earthfinds during an interview inside his wattle office.

But gold miners in Namayingo and Bugiri districts, especially the natives, were defiant and often ignored the restricted movements, social gatherings, night curfews and the lockdown to go down in the pits to look for gold.

The local authorities, including police, were understanding and never really applied the strong arm of the law. The undoing at the time was the lack of buyers, this worsened the situation.

Ms. Mariam Rose a native of Buhere lamented that farming is fast becoming insufficient and unable to support her family of eight. The single mother who we found crushing stones in the gold mines said that the land she has is not enough to enable her grow surplus food.

She, therefore, comes to the mines where she works as a laborer so she can earns about Shs10, 000 daily to financially provide for herself, her children’s feeding and education.  

She is not the only woman in the expanding mines. Many like her own no pits. They are employed as laborers to earn a day’s wage. Many of the women were just returning to Buhere to work after the forced pause caused by the pandemic. They pound away the stones to crush them into small sizes before they are turned into dust and ‘washed’ to sieve out gold.

Mr. Mina said that miners who are indigenous residents, like Ms. Rose, would sneak and go to look for gold in the rocky pits but there was no market for their find. But whenever the lockdowns relaxed the gold buyers who came to the village would give them low prices.

Another female miner in Buhere said social distancing ensured that very few people worked in the mines. The curfew also made them to leave the mines early and not work the night shift.

Also, working in the mines is laboring and require proper breathing but the masks were detrimental yet the local authorities, according to Mr. Mina, ensured every person who entered the mines wore a mask.

Lost revenue for local government

The story is not any different in the gold mines in Bugiri. Those who managed to access the mines had nowhere and nobody to sell their gold too. The gold production plummeted, incomes crushed and life was hard.

Mr. Hussein Lwanga, the acting head of natural resources department in Bugiri district in an interview confirmed that when the economy was closed, the buyers couldn’t reach the sites.

“The miners had the products but the buyers were not accessible. This led to miners to shift from gold mining to sand mining and stone quarrying. It largely affected miners income; they were not earning,” he explained.

This pinch was also felt by the district revenue collection department. Mr. Lwanga said: “. Also, because the mining in the area is still rudimentary, revenue collection is tricky. You cannot track their output, so we lost out completely. We also couldn't move into mines to track their production because of the lockdown. Actually, during the pandemic, we realized nothing in terms of revenues.”

Local governments are by law supposed to get loyalties from the miners but because most miners are artisanal and rudimentary, district fail to track the miners down since they are not well streamlined.

Low prices for gold

At Budde gold mining site, a handful of young men were active. A site that usually accommodates over 300 miners and dealers, you could barely count 30. Those we found onsite said there colleagues had not yet return from the forced COVID19 break.

Yokosadi, in his mid-30s, decried the low prices and the lack of market for their gold despite risking all to come and work.

“What we used to sell at Shs15, 000, you would get it at Shs8, 000. They were no buyers. Those who had special vehicles going to Kampala were few and they would give us low prices,” the soft speaking man said of the bad business at the time in March.

Mr. William Musinguzi, the site manager of Acorn Mining Company also operating inside the gold mine at Budde revealed that they witnessed the price falling from Shs150, 000 per gram to as low as Shs100, 000. As a manager representing the interests of the investor, this was bad business.

But with the opening up of the economy, business is coming back to life. Yokosadi said that the price has started going up. Now, a point goes for Shs15, 000. By the time of publishing this report, it could have gone higher.

Strict rules in Mubende

In Bugiri and Namayingo, like everyone in the communities, the miners heed to the call to observe the Standard Operating Procedures something that they say helped them not to register any COVID19 cases in Namayingo.

“We were clean and keen. We had water and soap. Visitors first reported to our chairman”, a miner at Budde said as he ‘washed’ the soils in quest for gold. 

But in Mubende and Kasanda, the strictness was tough that some miners runaway and found their way to Bugiri.

Mr. Henry Batuma is a Mubende based gold miner and dealer but because of the strict COVID19 rules in central Uganda, he sought refuge in Bugiri district where work was still going on.

Mr. Baguma's other reason for relocating to Namayingo is that government had closed their mine, but now that COVID had subsided, he was planning to relocate to Kasanda.

Silence in Tororo

Stone quarrying is a big mining business in Tororo district and has helped Tororo town boom. But even before the Tororo stone quarry contractors, a company owned by Israeli got issues with Tororo Cement, their main customers leading to its closure in 2021, the miners there had already felt the punch of COVID19.

Mr. Sam Mugabi was a contracted driver in the stone quarry but due to downsizing and the restrictions due to COVID19, many miners had lost their jobs even before the quarrel between the Israeli firm and Tororo Cement.

Like many minerals, the prices of the stones fell down from a Shs150, 000 a tonne to Shs100, 000 or less.

 Not bad business for development minerals

Unlike gold, COVID19 presented a mini boom in the real estate business, the biggest consumers of sand, stones and rocks.

At Bubugo Kirongo Stone Quarrying site, a few kilometers from Bugiri town, the miners who embraced the midday heat when we arrived, said that because schools were closed, some parents turned to constructing houses and other projects something that brought them customers.

“As you know, businesses are connected to each other; if a food vendor doesn’t make sales, another business will struggle. So sometimes we would not get customers but here business was not entirely bad,” Mr. Fred Kasambira, wearing a yellow glove in his left palm to protect him from the pricks of the stone, said. 

Dennis, a youthful miner in a fading vest told this reporter in Kirongo that the period of COVID19 was full of uncertainty. “For a man like me with a family, that was a hard time not to have a daily income. Now that we have resumed, I am not sure if I will make enough money to send my children back to school,"

Dennis’ school fees worry is shared by many of his colleague. And it is not just schools fees to send their children back but now their-would be customers were prioritizing and saving every penny they earn to prepare for the schools opening. This means fewer customers for men and women in Kirongo quarry that employs over 400 miners.

Originally not a miner before COVID19 struck, Ms. Hadijah Mutesi says the pandemic drove her to the stone quarry so as to earn a living and take care of her family. Unfamiliar with the stone breaking, the stones tear her fingers’ skin but she has no option but to work.

"When COVID19 started in 2020, my previous business ended and I returned to the village. I have children and grandchildren who need to feed and they will need to go to school when they open. The children also need medication," an elderly Ms. Mutesi says sweating as she smashes more hardcore into tiny pieces.

Mr. Nambiro Fred Bazibu, also of Kirongo complained of the health risks involved in their trade. He then called on government to support them by providing them with machines that can easy their work.

No buyers for iron ore in Kigezi

In Kegezi sub region, the impact of COVID19 was equally felt among the communities in Rubanda district. Endowed with iron ore and wolfram, Rubanda has a sizeable mining community.

In Nyamuriro village, Muko Sub County, Rubanda district, Mzee Kabwekye, Byamukama and Jasper have agonizing tales to tell. These wolfram miners, when the mines closed to avert the spread of the deadly disease had to find relocate to other places and jobs.

In Particular, Jasper travelled as far as Buganda in search of work abandoning his family back home. In Buganda, the situation was not any different and he couldn’t return home due to the lockdown.

Byabakama said: “Our lives depended on these mines to provide for our families but when the mines were closed because of COVID19, we had to go and look for work elsewhere but the situation was not good. Even after the reopening, the situation is not good,”

Not that miners who stayed in Rubanda were any better than Jasper, Mzee Kabwekye said: “What we reaped from COVID19 is poverty. Some people don't have to drink and waste their life.” And now he wants government to help because they are out of work.

In Hamurwa Town Council, Rubanda district, iron ore miner reported that buyers of their iron ore ran away with their money when COVIDq9 lockdown was announced.

Ms. Scorah Tukahigwa said they formed an association they called Kigezi Iron Ore Miners which they used as a collective voice to demand from an ‘investor’ called Mr. Moses Kamuntu. But even with the numbers of the association, Mr. Kamuntu didn’t pay them.

Now that they have resumed work, they have the iron ore but no buyers, Mr. Kamuntu has not returned. We want government to get buyers of our iron ore, she pleaded in the interview.

For Lawrence, the COVID19 experience is gruesome. “We got very many challenges when COVID19 came. We failed to get money to pay workers. Because we hadn’t paid them, they couldn’t support their families. Actually very many families broke up.

We used to pay our worker weekly but when COVID19 came, we failed to get money; we went to the bank and we failed to pay the loans, the banks took our properties. Some people ran away because of the banks.”

But for Ms. Tukahigwa, COVID19 didn’t pass without a lesson being learnt. She said: “During the period of COVID, we learnt how to save. The little we had, we saved it. We also learnt to enter into contracts; this helps us not to be cheated.”

This news report was made possible with financial support from Global Rights Alert and technical support from Ultimate Media Consult.

By Rachael Amongin

Amidst the ‘green recovery’ drive, many governments are still prioritising environmentally unfriendly stimulus measures supporting fossil fuels to support poverty eradication and economic development which remain the key priorities for developing countries like Uganda.

Mr. Geofrey Ssemakasa a poultry farmer in Mukono district quit formal employment for agriculture and he has never looked back on the decision he made but instead is happy with what he has accomplished since he started poultry farming.

Like Mr. Ssemakasa, a number of people returned to agriculture and other natural resource-dependent activities, as a means of coping with the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, and this has put additional strain on natural resources, which were already stretched from rapid population growth, urbanisation, a refugee influx, and the drive for industrialisation. Increased demand for food and energy to sustain livelihoods and create income sources have added to the already high levels of unsustainable natural resource utilisation.

The World Bank reported that about 41 percent of Uganda’s land is now degraded, with an unsustainable rate of soil erosion and land degradation whose cost is estimated at about 17 percent of GDP; forest cover is declining by 2.6 percent every year, which is one of the highest rates of forest loss globally. Climate risks, including slow-onset change and extreme events, have exacerbated this natural capital degradation contributing to economic vulnerabilities and poverty, and will continue to do so in the future.

At a macro level, agriculture remains the mainstay of Uganda’s economy, supporting the livelihoods of over 70% of the population, most of whom rely solely on subsistence agriculture for their livelihood yet in addition to the post-COVID-19 crisis, Uganda also faced a locust invasion affecting crop production in parts of the northern and eastern regions. Added to this, was the impact of flooding and landslides that had a significant negative impact on Uganda’s food security situation. These natural disasters have affected the harvest and caused increased food insecurity in the worst-hit areas.

Looking at the budgetary allocations for FY 2022/23 of Shs. 628 billion for the environment and climate change sector, including funding to enhance resilience to climate change, restoration of degraded and protected ecosystems, and forest conservation, the allocated resources are inadequate. They lack consideration of environmental sustainability in the long run.

It has been observed that if the identified green growth interventions were fully implemented, they could provide a boost to economic activity, worth around 10% of GDP by 2040, deliver employment of up to 4 million jobs and reduce future greenhouse gas emissions by 28% and considering that Uganda is a natural resource-based economy where the majority of the population highly depends on natural resources for their livelihoods, it follows that the transition to a green economy will require a paradigm shift in the management of the natural resources.

The natural environment is humanity’s first line of defense against floods, droughts, heat waves, and other disasters thus the need to protect and work with nature to build resilience and reduce climate risks at all scales. Let us continuously advocate for catalytic investment in sectors like agriculture, tourism, and clean energy that have got high green growth multiplier effects.

Rachael Amongin, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Financial services provider Equity Group Holdings, which operates the Equity Bank brand in the great lakes region, has weathered the COVID-19 disruption to register a 51% growth in its balance sheet with total assets growing to Kshs1.015 billion up from Kshs674 billion the previous year.

The growth delivered through both organic and merger & acquisition strategies saw the group become the first financial institution to cross the trillion shillings rubicon in East and Central Africa.

The growth has been driven by a 53% increase in customer deposits which grew to Kshs741 billion up from Kshs483 billion, while long-term debt financing grew by 71% to Kshs97 billion from Kshs57 billion with shareholders’ funds growing by 24% to Kshs139 billion up from Kshs112 billion.

Deployment of the 51% growth of funding enabled loans to customers grow by 30% to Kshs478 billion up from Kshs366 billion. Cash and cash equivalents grew by 186% to Kshs247 billion up from Kshs86 billion. Investment in Government securities grew by 26% to Kshs217 billion up from Kshs172 billion.

Net interest income grew by 23% to Kshs55 billion up from Kshs45 billion driven by a 30% growth on customer loan book and 26% growth in investment in Government securities.

Non-funded income grew at 27% to reach Kshs38 billion up from Kshs30 billion to contribute 41% of the total income. Forex trading income grew by 77% to stand at Kshs6.2 billion up from Kshs3.5 billion.

Diaspora remittances commissions grew by 76% to Kshs1.5 billion up from Kshs0.9 billion. Volume of Forex trading increased by 51% to Kshs863 billion up from Kshs571 billion with Diaspora remittance contributing 32% of the volume of forex traded.

Total operating costs grew by 67% to Kshs71 billion up from Kshs42.5 billion driven by a 496% growth in gross loan provision of Kshs26.6 billion up from Kshs5.3 billion in the prior year, increasing the cost of risk to 6.1% up from 1.3% the previous year. The higher loan loss provisions enhanced NPL coverage to 89%.

As part of the Group’s commitment to support lives and livelihoods, keep the lights of the economies on by avoiding massive disruption of economic activities, the Group accommodated Kshs171 billion of loans for customers whose repayment capacity was adversely impacted by Covid-19. This represents 32% of the entire gross loan book of Kshs530 billion.

As at 31^st December Kshs40 billion of the restructured loans had resumed repayments and normalized. A deep dive review of the entire Kshs171 billion accommodated loans revealed doubts on the future viability and quality on Kshs9 billion of loans promoting the downgrade of the said doubtful loans to NPL (IFRS 9 Stage 3) increasing the NPL portfolio to 11% up from 10.4% as at 30th September 2020, and 9% as at the end of the previous year and closing the year with 23% accommodated loan book equivalent to 11% of the balance sheet.

The Group’s cost income ratio improved to 48.5% from 51.1% the previous year driven by improvement in cost of funds from 2.9% to 2.8% and enhancement of yields on government securities from 10.1% to 10.7% despite realization of capital gains on the securities trading of Kshs3 billion up from Kshs1.1billion the previous year and 117% growth of mark to market gains to Kshs7.4 billion up from Kshs3.4billion.

Yields on loans declined from 12.6% to 12.4% due to increased suspended interest on increased NPL book and change of loan book mix of local currency to US$ currency to 57%:43% from 64%:36% ratio in favour of the local currency as a result of acquisition and merger of BCDC in DRC and increase of 186% on cash and cash equivalent. The profit after tax contribution from the business outside Kenya grew to 28% from 18%.

The Managing Director and CEO Dr. James Mwangi said: “The previous global pandemic was the Spanish Flu which occurred in 1919, a century back, and hence the world had lost its memory and had to re-learn, adapt and adjust making 2020 an exceedingly difficult and challenging year.

Our corporate purpose of ’Transforming lives, giving dignity and expanding opportunities for wealth creation’ became the guiding compass of the organization’s essence on how to navigate through the crisis and the challenging environment. Our results and performance became a human story of resilience and determination to live an ethical human purpose.”

Parents and pupils who are interested in joining Kampala Parents’ School in the incoming academic year but missed the November and December 2020 interviews have another chance this month to be interviewed.

This comes after Kampala Parents School announced new dates on which parents and guardians can bring their children to be interviewed and assessed before being enrolled in the school community.

“The Principal of Kampala Parents' School Informs all interested parents that admissions for 2021 intake are still on from 8:00 am to 1:00 pm,” the school announced.

The interview dates are Monday, 11th January, Friday, 22 January and Saturday 30th January 2021. The interviews and assessment are purely academic and will be conducted by highly trained teachers.

While the government hasn’t pronounced when it will be reopening schools following the closure of all education centres countrywide in March by President Yoweri Museveni as a means of combating Coronavirus, Kampala Parents School and other schools are optimistic that it will happen soon.

Kampala Parents mission, according to management, is to instil qualities of good leadership, sound moral judgment, self-discipline, a pluralistic outlook, and civic responsibility to distinguish each child as a responsible individual.

By Dr Krishna N. Sharma 

Higher education training institutions across the country were excited to know that the National Council for Higher Education (NCHE) finally released guidelines for adoption of an emergency Open, Distance and E-Learning (ODeL) system during COVID-19 pandemic.

It is also applauding of the First Lady and education and sports minister Mrs Janet Museveni, gave the go-ahead for online teaching to enable the higher institutions of learning to offer learning during the current lockdown.

Though a few institutions had already engaged their students in teaching and learning activities using online platforms, the students and institutions were still uncertain about the continuity. If we leave out the institutions that started online teaching and learning early, for some of them, this guideline is a vanity, appreciating it is sanity, but complying with it is a yet-to-be-tested reality.

Institutions were concerned about the delay in issuing the guidelines as it was affecting the sustainability of institutions and the progress of students. But after reading this carefully crafted five-paged compact to-the-point document, it becomes clear why did it take time. The good thing is that the NCHE consulted the universities, took note of their suggestions, analysed, and then came up with this guideline. So, it is expected that the majority of the institutions co-own it.

These guidelines ask higher education training institutions to avail 26 different pieces of evidence. But the beauty of this guideline is that it protects academic freedom and institutional autonomy. These essential pieces of evidence cover a wide range of areas including but not limited to students, human resource, ODeL model, evaluation and assessment, ICT infrastructure, quality assurance, health and safety, and compliance with relevant laws and regulations.

The very first expectation in this guideline is the existence of COVID-19 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) as issued by the Ministry of Health. It indicates that NCHE has prioritised the health and safety of students and staff. It is something the higher education training institutions should already have in place as it has been long since the Ministry of Health issued the guideline.

The immediate challenge higher education training institutions may face is crafting a cost-effective ODeL system that addresses the need of institution and students. This can be well guided by doing a student survey to find out their readiness. Knowing the readiness and challenges of students will help institutions not only find practical solutions and build required ICT infrastructure but also help them propose reasonable mitigation measures and strategy of redress for time and learning lost. The survey will guide the discussion with relevant stakeholders on mitigation measures and approach.

However, just having the ODeL system and ICT infrastructure is not enough until the users know how to use it. Higher education training institutions need to train their staff and students on appropriate and effective utilisation of ODeL system for online teaching, learning, assessment and evaluation. It is also vital to ensure that the students and staff are aware of internet ethics and relevant laws and regulations such as the Data Protection and Privacy Act 2019.

There will be challenges at students’ end too. Few students may find e-learning financially constraining if there are longer face-to-face teaching and learning hours, mentally constraining if they have poor internet connection, and physically constraining (e.g. eye strain, neck pain, backache) if they don’t have quality tools to access ODeL. It is important to inform students about these constrains and help them learn cop up mechanisms.

Another important area, the institutions need to focus on is online assessment and evaluation. There will be a need for smart use of ICT to avoid cheating while ensuring security and privacy. Institutions should find creative and innovative ways to establish a framework that ensures fair assessment and evaluation without over-complicating the whole process.

In a nutshell, the guidelines have covered all essential areas and the ball is in the court of higher education training institutions and students. The post-pandemic period is not going to be the same and the e-learning is going to prepare both the education sector and the student for the same. It is not going to be a swift shift for many institutions and students, but it is worthwhile.

We must applaud the government on the move taken to allow e-learning. We should have had it in this country years back. The mere fact that now that the government has pronounced itself on the matter, this is highly laudable.

The writer is a Vice-Chancellor for Victoria University in Kampala.