By NJ Ayuk

Quota-related decisions made at OPEC's 35th meeting last June in Vienna delivered a call to action for African member states to step up production through the remainder of the year and into 2024.

Many of OPEC's African member states had been struggling to produce enough crude to meet the targets set for them last year. As a result, they found themselves accepting even lower quotas this year.

Decisions regarding production cuts for African members Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Nigeria are summarized in the African Energy Chamber's (AEC) newly released outlook report, "The State of African Energy Q2 2023."

Our report also notes easing of the civil unrest that resulted in the exclusion of member state Libya from OPEC cuts for the time being.

OPEC's meeting, which included OPEC+ oil-exporting countries as well, resulted in a Declaration of Cooperation that delays further cuts to production targets until 2024 and continues voluntary cuts by nine member states until the end of 2023. Algeria and Gabon are the two African members among those volunteers.

The 2024 Targets and Expected African Production

OPEC's signed declaration calls for a significantly lower cumulative production target for African member states: about 4.33 million barrels per day (MMbbls/d) of crude oil.

A look at the targets of OPEC's two leading African oil producers — Nigeria and Angola — shows considerable reductions from the 2023 quotas set at the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM). Nigeria's 2024 target, 1.38 (MMbbls/d), represents a reduction of 360,000 barrels per day (bpd), and Angola's quota went down by 175,000 bpd to 1.28 MMbbls/d.

Despite these reduced quotas, it is not anticipated that either country will reach theirs in 2024; Nigeria is expected to hit 95% of its target, Angola 75%. Nigeria, although estimated to be capable of producing 2.2 MMbbls/d, has faced challenges such as oil theft, sabotage, and technical issues.

Angola, despite increased oil and gas activity in 2023, has still strained in recent months to produce more than 1.1 MMbbls/d, far short of its current 1.46 MMbbls/d target from OPEC.

Congo is also expected to fall short of its production target, at about 10% less than allowed, while Equatorial Guinea and Gabon will likely produce slightly over their target numbers of 70,000 bpd and 177,000 bpd respectively, avoiding compliance as in the past. Of the members in sub-Saharan Africa, only Gabon has achieved its target this year.

Algeria in the north is another high achiever, with production capacity that exceeds its 2024 OPEC target of 959,000 bpd. It has agreed to cut output by 96,000 bpd to comply.

Meanwhile, its next-door neighbor, Libya, achieved an average of 1.26 MMbbls/d for 2023 after recovering from drastic production outages during 2022 civil disturbances. OPEC cuts for 2024 have not been set for Libya, allowing the country to use oil reserves to assist with reconstruction efforts.

Crude production in several African nations has been stymied by lack of adequate investment, political unrest, and technical issues associated with older wells.

Following an assessment of the Declaration of Cooperation by IHS, Wood Mackenzie, and Rystad Energy, the 2024 targets for Nigeria and Congo may be revised based on their anticipated levels of production.

Strategies for a Better-Than-Expected 2024 and Beyond

The delayed OPEC production cuts clearly showcase an urgent need for African countries to up their current production numbers and prove that higher quotas are warranted, which would also increase African negotiating sway at future meetings.

The possibility of target modification "to equal the average production that can be achieved in 2024," particularly for Congo and Nigeria, was raised in a June OPEC announcement that followed the meeting. Angola was also mentioned as having production plans "subject to verification...before the end of 2024."

Acknowledging both the opportunity and the urgency, the head of geopolitics for London-based research firm Energy Aspects, Richard Bronze, stated that the deal "certainly creates an incentive for these three countries (Angola, Congo, and Nigeria) to try and demonstrate they can raise production before year-end, but we think they are unlikely to be able to manage it."

The time is now for African OPEC members to prove that they can achieve the higher output capability that warrants higher baselines.

The calls for government action that I and the AEC have stressed in recent years are more urgent than ever: African governments need to create the kind of positive, enabling climate that will encourage greater exploration and production. Good financial policies will help in that effort, as will ethical, transparent, and efficient governance.

Prioritizing speedy adoption and execution of measures to achieve these goals will bring what is most needed to boost African production numbers — increased interest from international oil companies and investors.

A united effort to awaken more investor interest in African oil should start now, as should cooperation among African members to present a more unified voice when the 36th OPEC meeting is held in November, 2023.

The OPEC - Africa Roundtable at the African Energy Week in Cape Town, will ensure Africa specific issues are addressed and as well as global energy security issues.

As S&P Global noted, this strategy would be "taking a page from their Middle East counterparts, who typically align their positions before contentious negotiations through pre-meeting consultations."

I encourage Africa's member nations to do what it takes to increase investment, production, and their influence at the OPEC table. You are stronger together.

NJ Ayuk is the Executive Chairman of African Energy Chamber

South Africa is facing an energy crisis on a very large scale. It's not for nothing that President Cyril Ramaphosa took the unprecedented step of declaring a "national disaster" in February.

The country's fuel and energy sector is truly in trouble, with power shortages and blackouts worse than ever before.

There are some hopes for relief, including efforts to find new sources of fuel for thermal power plants (TPPs).

On the one hand, South Africa possesses large offshore natural gas reserves in the Outeniqua basin and may be able to find more in its section of the Orange basin and elsewhere.

On the other hand, it shares borders with other two future gas producers – Namibia and Mozambique, both of which have sizeable reserves and smaller populations than South Africa – that may be willing to export some of their bounty under the right conditions.

Nevertheless, these solutions are still some distance away, given that it will take years to bring gas from these large-scale projects to market.

In the meantime, South Africa should not lose sight of the fact that it has other solutions at hand.

It is true that the solutions I'm talking about are considerably smaller in scale and humbler in nature than the massive projects I've already mentioned.

They don't target new deepwater frontier basins, and they won't require multi-billion-dollar investments. But they do have the potential to offer crucial support to Africa's second-largest economy at a time of severe crisis.

I'd like to talk about two companies that are in a position to offer this kind of support.

Kinetiko Energy: Onshore Gas Supplies to Local Power Stations

One of them is Kinetiko Energy, an Australian company that is working to develop conventional gas reserves in southern Africa. Its primary focus is the Amersfoort-to-Volksrustregion, which focuses on a large gas deposit in the Mpumalanga province, southeast of Johannesburg.

Kinetiko is still working to determine exactly how much gas its licenses contain, but it is optimistic in light of the fact that the area has long been known to hold very high-quality methane in shallow sediments and coal-beds, and it has estimated its 2C resource at 4.9 trillion cubic feet (138.8bn cubic meters).

On January 30, 2023, the company issued a statement extolling the "record breaking" results achieved from a new core well, 271-23C, during logging and core-sample testing after the completion of a three-well drilling program.

The statement included some insights into the well's geology, but it also quoted Kinetiko CEO Nick de Blocq as saying that 271-23C was in a favorable geographic location.

Specifically, he drew attention to the well's position in Block ER271, close enough to the Majuba TPP to represent a field which could supply it with gas in addition to coal, its usual fuel.

Meanwhile, de Blocq also drew attention to 270-03C and 270-06C, the other wells drilled during the three-well drilling campaign.

He pointed out that the Lily Pipeline runs through all of Kinetiko's current blocks, including Block ER270.

This is South Africa's largest gas conduit, which transports gas from Sasol's Secunda plant to coastal cities and to industrial consumers in the KwaZulu Natal region.

 "The proximate location of our southernmost boreholes in ER270 to the steel-smelting and manufacturing centre of Newcastle could mean a simplified logistical solution to get the gas to an increasingly hungry thermal industry market," he stated.

Of course, it is true that Kinetiko is still working to finalize its plans. It has yet to determine exactly when it can begin commercial production, having started the activities required to evolve their Exploration Right into a Production Right, and it is busy negotiating with midstream players who bring downstream offtakers and financing.

But it is optimistic about its ability to launch small-scale development quickly — and about its ability to make a local power-generating entity one of its very first clients.

This is the sort of initiative and drive that has the potential to benefit South Africans greatly on a local level while larger-scale solutions come together, and I hope to see more of it.

Creative Ideas and Environmental Considerations

Indeed, if South Africa was willing to take steps to open up more of the onshore basins that might hold gas — such as the Karoo basin— it would be giving investors a signal that it was ready to entertain new solutions to a problem that has persisted for far too long.

Of course, when I call for new solutions, I don't mean it's time to give free rein to polluters and forget about environmental concerns entirely.

If South Africa is going to develop an onshore gas industry, the government ought to be making plans to develop the regulatory regime accordingly, and investors ought to be keeping environmental concerns front and center as well.

But there's good news: Some of them are already doing so.

Renergen: Demand for Gas Beyond Power Generation

And that brings me to my second example: Renergen, the native South African company that is carrying out the Virginia gas project.

Renergen has been working to develop three conventional gas fields in Free State – Theunissen, Virginia, and Welkom, which are collectively estimated to hold nearly 407 billion cubic feet (11.53 million cubic meters) of conventional natural gas in proved and probable (2P) reserves.

It is keen to monetize these fields because they contain relatively high levels of helium — a commodity that is both valuable and rare — as well as gas.

As such, it has worked to transform its initial compressed natural gas (CNG) initiative into a larger-scale and considerably more ambitious liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

In September of last year, Renergen started up its onshore gas liquefaction plant, becoming South Africa's very first producer of LNG.

The company touted its environmental credentials in a Twitter post announcing the launch, noting that the plant's output would help reduce the country's carbon footprint by making a new type of fuel with lower emissions intensity than diesel available for trucking and other commercial uses.

It was referring to a deal signed in the summer of 2020 with Total South Africa, a subsidiary of the French major TotalEnergies, on joint marketing and distribution of LNG.

Under that deal, Renergen agreed to deliver some of the LNG from the first phase of its plant to Total-branded filling stations along the N3 road, a major highway connecting Durban and Johannesburg, for sale as a long-haul trucking fuel.

It also pledged to make more LNG available for distribution and sale via Total stations along other key highways once the second phase of its plant came online, saying that expanding the use of LNG in the road freight sector would help curb the rise in carbon emissions.

But Renergen has not confined its efforts to transport. It has also targeted industrial customers, and in August 2021 it signed a five-year supply agreement with Ardagh Glass Packing (previously known as Consol Glass), a supplier of glass packaging materials based in Johannesburg.

Then in February 2022, it followed that with another five-year deal — this time, with Ceramic Industries Group, based in Vereeniging.

Both Ardagh and Ceramic Industries are subsidiaries of Italtile, based in Cape Town; Ardagh has said it intends to use the LNG to replace liquid petroleum gas (LPG) at its Belville operation in the Western Cape area, while Ceramic Industries will use LNG to supplement the gas supplies it receives via pipeline.

Renergen made its very first shipment of LNG to Ardagh's Belville site in December 2022 after setting up turn-key delivery facilities per the terms of its contract.

At that time, the company said it had received expressions of interest in its LNG from multiple South African businesses, including independent power producers (IPPs), large-scale industrial manufacturers, and heavy logistics operators.

It did not name any potential new clients, and since then, its efforts to drum up new business may have been overshadowed by the escalating energy crisis.

Nevertheless, Renergen's efforts to establish a foothold in the industrial and transport sectors are important. They demonstrate that there is ample room for natural gas in South Africa – that there are opportunities for gasification in the country that are not confined to the power-generating sector.

Yes, South Africa urgently needs gas to help resolve its energy emergency. Gas will help South Africa find ways to produce the additional electricity it needs to provide all of its citizens with reliable and secure power — both in the longer run as new offshore fields come online and in the shorter term as companies such as Kinetiko and Renergen develop onshore resources.

But South Africa could also use gas for other purposes. It could use gas as a substitute for diesel in long-haul trucking — and thereby reduce emissions in the transport sector.

It could introduce LNG as a fuel for industrial customers — and thereby reduce emissions in that part of the economy, while also reducing the drain on the national transmission grid.

It could create markets that can be sustained and made profitable even beyond the time when (I hope) the current crisis will be nothing but a memory.

So let's give South Africa's smaller-scale gas producers a chance to grow.

By NJ Ayuk

Witnessing the far-reaching effects of South Africa's continuing power cuts has been tremendously disheartening.

The frequent and extended power outages taking place have left businesses in Africa's most industrialized country struggling to function. Manufacturing is suffering. The national economy is taking a hit.

The prolonged darkness is emboldening thieves and pushing crime rates up. And as state-owned utility Eskom spends increasingly more on what are ultimately unsuccessful efforts to fix the problem, its operational costs are surging.

Those costs are being passed along to consumers and businesses in the form of power price hikes, placing additional burdens on them.

I don't believe President Cyril Ramaphosa was overreacting last month when, in response to the outages — by then leaving people in the dark six to 10 hours a day — he declared a national state of disaster.

This freed emergency funding and gave the government additional powers, including streamlined procurement processes. I agree with the grave concerns he shared during his State of the Nation address in February.

"We are in the grip of a profound energy crisis," Ramaphosa said. "The crisis has progressively evolved to affect every part of society. We must act to lessen the impact of the crisis on farmers, on small businesses, on our water infrastructure and our transport network."

This crisis, explored in depth in our soon-to-be-released report, The State of South African Energy, is hardly a new problem.

But the alarming frequency and length of South Africa's periods without power have created an untenable situation that, as the president said, is putting the country's well-being at risk.

Bleak Situation

At the root of South Africa's energy crisis are the country's coal-fired power plants, which are responsible for generating about 95% of the country's electricity. These facilities are old, over-used, and constantly breaking down.

To make sure the country's struggling plants aren't overwhelmed to the point that they trigger a total shutdown of the grid, it has become common practice at Eskom to implement deliberate power shutdowns, also known as rolling blackouts or load-shedding, several times a day.

South Africa's outages have set records for the past three years. In 2020, they reached a new high of 859 hours. That number rose to 1,169 hours in 2021. But 2022's record far exceeded anything seen up to then: 205 days of rolling blackouts.

Last October, the Pan South African Language Board (PanSALB) made "load-shedding" the 2022 South African Word of the Year.

"It should come as no surprise to many South Africans that load-shedding has been the most used word/term in South Africa as the dreaded rolling blackouts instituted by Eskom have largely defined our lived experience in 2022," PanSALB CEO Lance Schultz said at the time.

Failed Fixes

Also frustrating is the costly and unsuccessful saga of attempting to resolve this issue. About 15 years ago, South Africa began construction on two coal-fired plants, Medupi and Kusile, to increase the country's power-generation capacity.

That has not worked out according to plan. Today, the plants are only operating at half of their combined 9600 megawatts (MW) capacity because of breakdowns, technical defects, completion delays, and accidents. And despite the plants' inoperability, the project costs have been enormous, reaching a combined total of R300 billion by 2019.

Even with the hefty tariff increases imposed on customers, the company is struggling to keep up with its costs.

And last September, Ramaphosa announced that completing the two power stations will cost another R33 billion.

Distressing Repercussions

Then there are the costs of South Africa's continuing power struggles. I mentioned some of the negative repercussions on business, crime, and electricity tariffs. But that's only part of the story: Every outage has a devastating ripple effect that puts people at risk.

In South Africa, outages are causing food to rot, and they're increasing the risk of widespread food insecurity. Every day, load-shedding impedes farmers' ability to keep crops watered (pump stations that rely on electricity don't operate) and livestock alive (one farm, for example, lost 50,000 broiler chickens when the ventilation system failed).

The outages impact hospitals and healthcare for the disabled and elderly. People who rely on electricity for medical equipment, like oxygen machines, are being put in life-threatening situations.

Our report provides another troubling detail: the outages' cumulative effect on what South Africa could have achieved. Since 2007, load-shedding has cost South Africa a staggering R1.5 billion – R2.4 billion per day.

The result: Every year since 2007, 1-1.3% of the country's GDP has been shaved away. That means that without load shedding, South Africa's economy could have been about 17% larger than it is now.

I know there is little that can be done about what could have been, but I hope that confronting these painful truths galvanizes South Africa's leadership to put the country on a new path, one where the country begins realizing its full potential.

NJ Ayuk, the Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber 

South Africa's energy challenges will be front and center at African Energy Week scheduled to take place on 16-20 October in Cape Town.

Despite having 620 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, Africa's over reliance on wood-based biomass energy remains high, resulting in an increase in land degradation, deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, and in over 900 million people across the continent living without access to clean cooking.

However, if fully optimized and exploited, the continent's natural gas resources present an opportunity for Africa to address environmental destruction, ensure clean cooking for its population while also guaranteeing energy security and economic growth.

With over 81% of households in sub-Saharan Africa relying on wood-based biomass energy for cooking, the World Health Organization has linked millions of deaths in rural Africa to indoor emissions resulting from the continued and increased use of biomass.

In this regard, countries such as Nigeria, Malawi, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe, where biomass use is particularly high due to limited access to reliable electricity, could expand the exploitation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to ensure clean cooking for the population while also improving energy access.

With over 600 million in Africa living in energy poverty, resulting in increased use of wood-based biomass to meet daily energy needs, expanding the continent's gas market will help accelerate electrification while reducing stress on the national grid.

South Africa has taken a bold move in this regard with the government recently approving the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy's LPG Rollout Strategy, designed to leverage LPG to diversify the energy mix for energy security, affordability and decarbonization reasons.

With Africa seeking to achieve universal access to energy, the continued reliance on wood-based biomass remains a threat to improving energy access. With the United Nations Environment Programme predicting that over 65% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa will still rely on wood fuel for cooking by 2050, the time for Africa to invest more in its gas market is now.

Furthermore, with the reliance on biomass, the continent's industrialisation and economic growth is limited. Biomass represents an inadequate energy resource to power industry, hence, the need for Africa to prioritize the development and expansion of its gas market to fuel its industries while improving energy access and championing its climate stewardship is clear, now more than ever.

The African Energy Chamber (AEC), as the voice of the African energy sector, strongly advocates for the scaling up of gas investment and development across Africa, recognizing the role the resource plays in improving energy access and security, while enabling emission and deforestation reduction.

"With the increased use of natural gas, the African continent is well positioned to achieve energy independence, security and decarbonization targets at the same time reducing emissions and the destruction of our forests. Africa needs to come up with new ways to fund and fast-track the exploitation of its gas resources to achieve this. Not only will gas help reduce emissions but also provides African governments with much-needed GDP to fund the growth of the overall economy," stated NJ Ayuk, the Executive Chairman of the AEC.

African Energy Week (AEW) 2022, Africa's the premier event for the oil and gas sector, which will take place from 18 – 21 October 2022, in Cape Town, will discuss the role of gas in Africa's energy future. Under the theme, Exploring and Investing in Africa's Energy Future while Driving an Enabling Environment, AEW 2022 will host panel discussions and high-level meetings to discuss how Africa can increase investments across its gas value chain to ensure energy security while addressing unsustainable energy practices.

As Senegal’s first oil and gas projects are under-development and the first production is expected within two years, the African Energy Chamber conducted this week a working visit in Dakar to promote investment into the country and support local content development and capacity building.

Led by Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk, the African Energy Chamber’s delegation advocated for local content as a pillar of the industry’s sustainability efforts and offered all its support to continue pushing and financing Senegal’s initiatives to build capacity and build a new generation of Senegalese oil & gas workers and managers.

“Oil companies have an unmatched ability, and a profound responsibility, to support H.E. Macky Sall’s bold vision in shaping an economy that works for all Senegalese and preserves their freedoms,” said NJ Ayuk.

The team met with H.E. Macky Sall, President of the Republic of Senegal; H.E. Mouhamadou Makhtar Cissé, Minister of Petroleum and Energies, Ousmane Ndiaye, Permanent Secretary of COS-Petrogaz; Aguibou Ba, Director General of the National Institute for Petroleum and Gaz (INPG) and the majority of the oil and gas operators and service companies.   

“Moving closer and closer to becoming a large-scale producer of oil and gas, Senegal’s story is an inspiring one. And, as a hotspot for oil and gas development, it is only fitting that the nation cements market-driven local content frameworks that are rooted in capacity building and are driven by the determination to transform practices in its energy sector,” declaired Nj Ayuk.

“That is why initiatives such as the INPG are important in ensuring that industry revenue benefits the state while also guaranteeing employment for citizens. The INPG is a true social contract bringing the private and public sector together to plan for a prosperous future for Senegal,” he added.

The Chamber’s working visit coincided with that of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, during which state-owned SENELEC and GE signed an agreement for the development of 300MW of gas-to-power capacity, the modernization of Senegal’s power plants and the creation of a maintenance centre in Senegal.

In line with the US’ interests to increase cooperation with Africa, the Chamber reiterated the industry’s call for continued improvements in the ease of doing business and better operating environments for foreign investors.

“President Trump dispatching Secretary of State Pompeo and US companies to Senegal is a brilliant move. US companies understand that investing in Senegal is good business and a sustainable corporate strategy.

President Macky Sall’s government has built on positive trends to maximize foreign investments. This includes a commitment to transparency, improving safety and security, strengthening the macroeconomic environment, investing in quality education and skill development in science, technology and innovation, and avoiding the Dutch disease,” added Ayuk.

Last year, the African Energy Chamber and Centurion Law Group hosted a local content forum in Senegal, calling attention to local content development in the country. The ongoing visit serves as a follow up and a showcase of the Chamber’s continued commitment to the growth and development of African economies through ensuring that Africa’s natural resources benefit Africa’s people first.

“Senegal’s emergence as a key player in the oil and gas industry has been remarkable and, as this growth continues to surge, it is important that local communities have a seat at the table, It is also important that we continue to create an enabling environment investors and the oil sector. Cutting unnecessary red tape and fast-tracking project approvals will give the energy operators a boost,” said NJ Ayuk.

“This, however, is a goal that is achievable only through the collaboration of the private and public sector. Local content is value creation and it is pertinent that Senegal put in place policies and frameworks that will see its people benefit from its hydrocarbon industry,” he added.

Last month, Woodside Energy got the green light for its $4.2bn Sangomar oil project, Senegal’s first offshore oil venture where the first production is expected in 2023, with a capacity to reach 100,000 bopd. The Phase 1 development concept for the Sangomar field is a stand-alone FPSO facility with subsea infrastructure. 

Meanwhile, works are ongoing at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim FLNG project, whose phase 1 will see the commissioning of a 2.5 mtpa facility by 2022. This month, Kosmos Energy, BP, Petrosen and SMHPM signed an agreement with BP Gas Marketing for the supply of 2.45 mtpa of LNG over 20 years.

The MSGBC Basin has become sub-Saharan Africa’s hottest exploration frontier. Senegal is currently holding a licensing round to further attract investment into its acreages and boost existing reserves. The round is expected to generate tremendous interest from foreign investors and further confirm Senegal as a new African energy leader.